I2SC Lecture Series (Recording): Édith Darin (Demographic Science, University of Oxford) Statistical innovation for population estimation: integrating administrative records, geospatial data, and real-time streams

Date: February 6, 2026

Abstract:

Reliable subnational population estimates are essential for effective governance, service provision, and humanitarian response, yet many low- and middle-income countries lack recent or comprehensive census data. This talk explores emerging strategies for estimating population counts when traditional sources are unavailable. I will focus on the integration of diverse and incomplete data sources—including administrative records (e.g., health, education), satellite imagery, and geospatial covariates—combined through Bayesian modeling frameworks to generate high-resolution estimates. In the second part of the talk, I will extend these methods to the problem of nowcasting population distributions in crisis contexts, including forced displacement and conflict. Here, I will explore the utility of real-time or near real-time data streams—such as mobile phone metadata, satellite-derived indicators, and social media signals—for capturing rapid demographic shifts at fine spatial and temporal scales. Throughout the talk, I will emphasize not only the technical and methodological advances enabled by the digital data but also the ethical considerations around data use, privacy, and representation. 

You can watch the recording of the talk below.


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