Blog: Prediction Markets for Science: Beyond the Quick Bucks
Throughout the 2024 US election season, as opinion polls predicted roughly even chances of either party winning, news media paid special attention to the odds on prediction markets such as Polymarket. More recently, prediction markets made headlines for a different reason. When Venezuelan President Maduro was captured in January 2026, the prediction market reacted quicker than the actual news, helping a lucky insider make $436,000 in a few hours. But what are some uses for scientists, besides making some (or half a million) quick bucks? Determining the Reproducibility of Scientific Studies Several studies have explored the use of market-based prediction of reproducibility to guide scientific funding and replication efforts. Dreber et al. (2015) created their own prediction markets with recruited participants during psychology's Reproducibility Project, effectively leveraging the wisdom of the crowd with real financial stakes. The predictions coming from the prediction market ...